What it Really Means to Sell in May and Walk Away

In its quest to disprove this catchy saying, the analysts at AmericaFirst became some of its staunchest supporters.


What is the “Sell in May and Walk Away” Strategy?

Sell in May and Walk Away (also known as the Halloween Strategy) is a well-known trading adage that warns investors to sell their stock holdings in May to avoid a seasonal decline in equity markets. The sell-in-May-and-go-away strategy is where an investor sells his stock holdings in May and gets back into the equity market in November, thereby avoiding the typically volatile May-October period.


What We Learned

After pouring through decades of data and millions of data points, we learned the following:


Works Best with Non-Defensive Sectors. While Defensive sectors (Healthcare, Staples, and

Utilities) tend to show little deviation between the “best six months” and the “worst six months”, Cyclical stocks have displayed dramatic performance differences – see the following chart.


Bonds Double Stocks. AmericaFirst learned the worst six months for stocks have proven to be among the best six months for bonds. In fact, bonds have doubled stocks during May through October timeframe – regardless of interest rate environment. Why? Because as stocks decline, investors flee to bonds thereby increasing demand and therefore bond prices.


A Global Phenomena. The “Sell in May” strategy does not just apply to the United States. In fact, it is supported by over 200 years of data in the United Kingdom. The Strategy has proven effective in nearly 90% of developed and emerging markets – see the following chart:


How to Invest

AmericaFirst manages the only “Sell in May and Walk Away” mutual fund.


The Seasonal Rotation Fund owns cyclical stocks November through April and owns investment-grade bonds the remaining six months. As an additional market hedge, the Fund can implement short-selling strategies when the markets break down technically.

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© 2019 by AmericaFirst Quantitative Funds.

PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.

 

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of AmericaFirst Funds.  This and other important information about the Fund is contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained at www.AmericaFirstFunds.com or by calling 866-960-1355. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. 

 

Mutual Funds involve risk including risk including the possible loss of principal. Of course, there is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives.

Diversification does not ensure profit or prevent losses and there is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives, generate profits or avoid losses. The success of the Fund’s hedging strategy will also be subject to the Adviser’s ability to continually recalculate, readjust, and execute hedges in an efficient and timely manner.  An imperfect correlation between such hedging instruments may prevent the Fund form achieving the intended hedge or expose the Fund to risk of loss.

The AmericaFirst Quantitative Funds are distributed by Arbor Court Capital.